Monday, 24 November 2008

Is Alistair your Darling?

So, has Alistair ridden to the rescue? Will the beleaguered housing market suddenly leap to life? Will shoppers splash the cash again? And will banks pour money into cash-strapped businesses?
Er...unlikely.
Let's get one thing straight: nothing the Chancellor has announced will pull Britain back out of recession.
We're already there, and a recession has the momentum of a supertanker. It will take months before the tow-rope thrown out today tugs it back, and the fact that the Chancellor doesn't see the economy being in the same financial shape as it was for years tells its own story. It took us years to build up the credit bubble. It follows that it will take years to get over it.
And whatever the Government is giving away today must be paid back tomorrow, hence talk of tax rises and "efficiency savings". Some will argue that all Darling has really done is open a new credit card account with a bigger spending limit.
Clearly, the more we use that card, the more we will eventually have to pay back. The gamble is that the economy will pick up again more quickly if we cushion the drop by putting some (borrowed) cash into it now.
But when it does pick up, consumers and businesses will face higher taxes to pay those bills, and public services scaled back by reduced Government spending. That is guaranteed by today's announcements.
What else is guaranteed?
The three crisis points in the economy are these: businesses are having increasing difficulty getting cash from banks to fund their activities, would-be housebuyers are struggling to get mortgages, consumer spending has crashed.
All three are linked to one problem: the disappearance of credit on easy terms and the crisis of cash and confidence this has caused.
Lurking menacingly in the background is the nasty consequence of those problems: rising unemployment. It's nasty because it makes those problems even worse.
So what does today's statement do to tackle those big issues? Possibly less than the pre-statement fanfare suggested.
The business people I've been talking to this afternoon say the cut in VAT is unlikely to make much difference to consumer spending on its own as it will trim only a small percentage off prices.
And they didn't like the increase in National Insurance Contributions from 2011 one jot.
But at least the Government is doing something to help relieve the cash flow pressures that hobble otherwise good businesses in recession. An increase in small firms corporation tax is being delayed, while the taxman will give you longer to pay him. I hope they heard that at Castle Meadow
Similarly, special funds for small firms in theory make billions available - provided it oesn't get tied up by senseless qualification criteria. But the most Mr Darling could do with banks was give them another brow-beating.
Enough cynicism. Millions will be thrown at people on low incomes, social housing and the building of motorways and schools. It will help if it can be done quickly.
And enough waffling. Conjecture is all very well, but there's one question neither the Prime Minister nor the experts know the answer to: Will what has happened today make you spend?
Or will debt, the banking crisis and job worries mean we're all just too cautious to splash the cash anymore?
As they say on Big Brother, YOU decide…