Bargain Britain: M&S now or TK Maxx in January?

If you believe the Tories, then there's a real risk of Gordon Brown's rumoured tax-cutting, school-building spend-a-thon causing a run on the pound, which would force up prices and make life worse for all of us in the long run.
If you believe the Government, whose spin machine is back operating at full throttle, then the Tories are guilty of 'talking down the economy' at a crucial time (perish the thought that an opposition should, er, oppose).
So what's the truth – how bad are things going to get? If you want an easy answer ignore the politicians.
Instead, wait until early next year, hoof it to either Broadmarsh or Trinity Square, and suss out the quality of the bargains at TK Maxx.
That will tell you exactly how tough life has become on the street.
How come? Well, TK Maxx stocks stuff other shops have failed to sell, either because it's last season's leftovers or 'distressed stock' – the trade's cute phrase for what was left on the shelves when a retailer, importer or manufacturer hit the skids. For reasons I'll come on to, unsold stock is like the Fifth Horseman of the Apocalypse in a market like this.
TK Maxx can still make money out of this stuff because much of what they sell was originally on the shelves of middle or upmarket retailers, whose margin (what they charge you on top of what they paid the manufacturer) is so big that you could cut the price by 75% and still dine out for a year.
Now, retailers are at the sharp end of the recession as hard-up consumers aren't spending either because they can't borrow the money, don't want to borrow the money or are worried about spending anything when every other headline mentions jobs.
How will shops cope? The big chains will weather this storm. They do cheap as well as expensive and enjoy enough customer loyalty to keep the barcode readers beeping.
But stores selling froth you don't need or with price/service you can beat at the likes of www.we'recheaperthantheyare.com are in trouble. They will be struggling already, and when the quarterly rents for their shops are due in March and the financial year closes it could be the last straw for some.
Put that together with the desire of retailers, importers and manufacturers to avoid having unsold stock burning a hole in their balance sheet (unsold stock is the cash flow double whammy of money you've already spent AND a profit you haven't yet made), and you have the prospect of shelves at TK Maxx, discount retailers and even market stalls groaning with bargain posh frocks someone else couldn't sell.
You also have significant numbers of consumers keeping their powder completely dry at Christmas and ruthlessly hitting the High Street in the New Year instead.
You've seen the first steps in this bloody High Street battle this week, with M&S holding a one day 20% off sale. It sounds like a bargain and at this stage of the Christmas selling season probably is.
But it's also a clear attempt to avoid the unsold stock nightmare mentioned above. The theory is that if M&S can shift some of their gladrags now at 20% off it means there'll be less to flog at 50% or 75% off when things get really desperate.
Whether that theory turns into practice depends on you. Shoppers are wise to cut-price sale tricks these days and I suspect some will realise that if there's 20% off in November then discounts could double in December.
Bargain-hunting may be fun, but the speed with which discounts have been wheeled out by retailers tells you this Christmas is already marked down as a car-crash.
So you don't need bickering politicians to tell you how bad it's going to get. The evidence is staring back at you from shop windows all over Nottingham.