An unsurprising Budget?

Budgets are really political events. You find out the reality days, weeks and sometimes months afterwards.
Wednesday's Budget is even more political than normal, because it's the last one before the general election, and quite probably the last one Alistair Darling will deliver (that's not a political forecast, by the way - even if Labour wins, my money is on Gordon Brown's mate - and ex-Nottingham High School student - Ed Balls to take over at 11 Downing Street).
There'll be a few stunts in the Chancellor's statement, stunts aimed mainly at showing Labour in a good light and those 'slash-and-burn' Tories in a bad light. Expect him to contrast their talk about cutting government deficits with a Labour 'investment' in keeping young people off the dole.
But beyond that there will be very little of any real substance.
How do we know this? One, simple fact: several months ago, Labour decided to delay its normal Comprehensive Spending Review until Autumn 2010.
These reviews sketch out how much money government departments will have to play with in the years ahead. So they decide what Governments can and cannot do - Budgets just add flavour.
Why delay the review? Probably because whoever takes over will have to cut back, possibly in a big way. And no politician worth his salt will announce big cuts just before an election.
Yet there is immense pressure from major global financial and economic organisations to do just that. So while you won't see major cuts detailed, you are unlikely to see one of those rabbit-out-of-the-hat giveaways, either.
Alistair Darling might make some noise about forcing banks to lend more money to business, but even this looks likely to be show-boating: in an economy where growth is slow, there is no appetite among business to borrow money to fund expansion.
Indeed, more flexible overdrafts might be more relevant. They would help smooth out cash flow blips.
Wednesday's Budget is likely to be a very noisy event. But while there'll be plenty of heat, don't expect too much light.
That will come only when we can see how quickly our economy starts growing again. That will play a big part in deciding how and when we pay back all that money we borrowed to stave off economic collapse.
UPDATE: The BBC's Nick Robinson suggests there will be a rabbit-out-of-the-hat in the shape of a scrapping of Stamp Duty on house sales up to £250,000. There will also be 'investment' in technology jobs. My take? Wait until you've seen the fine detail: if spending is being increased in one area, it's almost certain to be reduced elsewhere. That's the only way we can afford it right now. As I said at the start, that may not become obvious until days afterwards.
UPDATE II: It's even possible there'll be some some announcements about specific regional investments, may be through that old chestnut of relocating government departments. It's been rumoured/suggested many times, but progresses - rather like the civil service - with glacial speed...