That recession argument again

You might see the odd report today about the UK recession.
Beware those that say figures show that the UK 'is still in recession'. The figures don't show that and it's unlikely that we are anymore.
Today's reports are based on the fact that the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which collates all the data about the UK's economic performance, has had another look at the numbers for the three month period from the start of July to the end of September.
Originally, it said those figures showed that our economy contracted by 0.4%. Now it says it was 0.3%.
Two points to bear in mind about those figures.
One is that we now know that they were were heavily influenced by poor performance in July and August (summer holidays, anyone?) and that things were picking up in September.
The second point is that it's now nearly December and the economy has moved on since then. In all likelihood, the next set of figures from the ONS will show that recession is already over.
This doesn't mean there's been a sudden leap in business activity. It means that sometime in early summer the UK economy hit its natural trough - the point where there is too much of the bare necessities of life going on for productivity to sink any lower.
It follows that things are bound to pick up and the only issue is how much and how fast.
'Not a lot' and 'as a snail' are the consensus replies.
But just as the last set of figures probably got warped by a couple of slow months, so the numbers for October, November and December may be flattered by the influence of the natural peak in consumer spending in the run-up to Christmas.
The truth is that we won't get a feel for how well we'll recover from recession until spring and early summer next year, when we'll have had a chance to look at a normal run of business activity.
By that time, of course, politicians will be muddying the waters in a big way during the course of an election campaign. In which case, it could even by autumn 2010 before we know which way the wind's blowing.
Either way, beware of anyone who says happy days are here again in January.