The Government's Debt Mountain: a year ago, Alistair Darling reckoned the Government would have to borrow a fairly routine £38 billion to help keep the economic show on the road.
Today, in the wake of one of the worst economic train-wrecks in history, he's likely to say he wants to borrow somewhere north of £160 billion.
Payback time: you don't run up a credit card bill like that without some serious consequences. Expect announcements about cuts in public spending and rises in taxes. The big question is when this all kicks in.
How markets react: for investors to pump money into the UK economy they must believe it is built on sound plans to pay off that debt mountain. If they don't think the payback plans are plausible it could cause a loss of confidence in the pound, which could push up inflation through the higher costs of imported goods and raw materials.
Jobs and training: the real fear in recession is youth unemployment – people dropping off the job ladder because they never get the chance to develop workplace skills. Watch out for plans to address this key issue.
Devil in the detail: be sceptical about some of this afternoon's headlines. Any Budget initiative which will be 'detailed at a later date' could turn into a nasty or a non-existent.
So long....
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Dear Readers,
Thanks for supporting this blog over the last few years. Writing it has
been an absolute pleasure, though the time has come to shut this part...
14 years ago
