Why recession is human nature

Another day, another bank warning about billions in losses. The question on everyone's lips is: when will this recession end?
I could take a shot at a long, technical answer, but the most accurate one is this: ask a bloke down the pub.
How come? Well, if you take a look at some of those interminable Bank of England reports about where the economy is heading you won't find any definitive answers.
Both the Bank and the Government know that a recession will follow a fairly predictable path, but they have no real idea how long or deep that path will be.
Why? Because the future of the economy ultimately depends on one single, unpredictable factor: human nature.
The Bank and the Government can launch crisis initiatives as often as they like, but if you and me don't respond to them in the way they hope we will the policy won't work.
This often happens. It's one of the main reasons why economies yo-yo up and down. And one of the main reasons why economic forecasters never give a definitive answer.
As long ago as 2003, the Bank's Governor, Mervyn King, was warning that the UK economy was over-heating and that consumer spending and borrowing really needed to slow down.
To try to make that happen, the Bank raised interest rates, figuring that making borrowing more expensive would mean we'd do less of it.
We didn't. We borrowed even more, and that played at least a part in the mess we're now in.
It has been trying to use interest rates again to lift the economy out of a slump, dropping them to levels not seen since the horse and carriage.
It ought to have had an immediate impact, but hasn't. Most people remain uncertain about what's going to happen because they have seen no convincing evidence that the Government, the Bank of England or – crucially – the US Government has yet neutralised the problem that tipped us into recession: bad bank debts.
Indeed, we've seen another 'nasty' today with Lloyds TSB revealing that HBOS (which it rescued) is sitting on £10bn of losses, much of it in property.
Uncertainty can be a self-fulfilling prophesy: because you are uncertain, you spend less. Because you spend less, the economic uncertainty continues.
So if you want a definitive answer from that bloke down the pub, spend plenty of money on drinks.