Wednesday, 8 October 2008

Is Gordon Brown now your bank manager?

Is it a bail-out for the banks, a restructuring of our financial system, or a lifebelt for an ailing economy?
Probably a mix of all three. And it may be weeks or months before we know for sure.
But I reckon the most interesting implication of the Government’s decision to wave at least 50 billion of your taxpaying pounds under the noses of the banks is a political one.
How come? Think about it – until a few weeks ago, Gordon Brown’s Premiership appeared to be on its last legs, with rumours of mass resignations and a Cabinet revolt.
The banking system is also deep in the doo-doo, exposed in the popular mind as recklessly obsessed with personal gain, hobbled by bad debt and suffering a chronic crisis of confidence that has begun to leak all over the real economy.
Put the two together and what have you got? A political opportunity as well as an economic necessity.
Put yourself in Gordon Brown’s shoes. Regardless of what happened in the past – because the pressing issue is the future – you can now ride to the rescue of the economy and put those brainless bankers in their place.
And the price you extract from the bankers for saving their skins is this: a degree of control over what they do.
So while this will never have been spelt out in any conversation between the Government, The Treasury, the Bank of England and the banks themselves, the implication behind today’s rescue seems crystal clear: we’ll bail you out, but only if you do everything you can to keep the economic show on the road.
The emergency interest rate cuts made by the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve in the USA and the European Central Bank are a further sign that Governments are expecting banks to do their bit to save Western economies.
The interesting time will be January. That will be when banks take decisions about whether any of the retailers they have been supporting with loans have done so badly over Christmas that they should pull their money out.
Ordinarily, the bank shareholders wouldn’t bat an eyelid. But the bank shareholders may well include the Government by then.
I wonder what Gordon Brown might have to say about your business loan if he was your bank manager? Some will argue that’s exactly what he is about to become.
UPDATE: I've just been speaking to a Government minister about the political implications. He said he'd be entirely happy with stories that said the Government would be dropping heavy hints to banks about the way they behave if it has stakes in them. So now you know who's in charge...