Thursday, 28 August 2008

Could the housing market be heading for arranged marriages?

Some people say we should delay Stamp Duty, others that Home Information Packs should be scrapped. I wouldn’t disagree with either, HIPs in particular being a spectacular waste of money.
But neither will revive the housing market. The answer to that lies much closer to home.
Nothing will bring back the house price bubble which blew up over the last three years. That’s dead and buried for now.
But those people who still want or need to make a move must make a ruthless reassessment of the price they’re willing to accept.
The conversation I had with Notts estate agent a few days ago tells me that a willingness to accept that the house price glory days are gone is what holds the best hope of unlocking a market which has been acting like a traffic jam no one could see the end of.
Britain’s biggest building society, the Nationwide, said today that prices were down by an average of 10.5% during the past 12 months. I think the figure’s bigger than that, with pressure on prices increasing since the spring, and that prices have some way further to fall.
What does that tell you? That unless you can afford to wait two or three years there’s little point hanging on to a high price in the hope something might happen.
Even if you reduce your price by 10-20% you are still likely to sell for more than you might this time next year.
My information is that estate agents are almost willing to try to fix up property’s equivalent of arranged marriages: you sell yours for a realistic price and they will talk to the agent selling the property you want to see if they can get the seller to agree to a similarly realistic deal. That way, they unlock the traffic jam and get the market moving.
Estate agents are under pressure themselves, of course. The heady commission they may have banked a year or two ago has disappeared, and they will do whatever they can to try to push people into deals. So don’t be rushed.
And cutting the price is clearly something you’ll struggle with if you bought during the past couple of years.
No one likes talking negative equity. But pay heed to the phrase ‘realistic pricing’. This, and the willingness to take a deep breath and swallow your pride, is what probably holds the key to any short-term improvement in the housing market.